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Now that we have dealt with the past, in terms of 2009 highlights, let’s open the magical crystal ball and speculate on what may possibly be in store as the top stories of the new baseball year to come. There will be no intense focus on international play this time around, as this year’s national team schedule includes no world championship matches of the stature of the 2008 Olympics or of last year’s World Baseball Classic and IBAF World Cup. But the domestic scene itself should hold excitement enough to entertain even the most jaded fanatic, and Cuban baseball always somehow manages to offer more than its share of unexpected twists and turns.

Home run balls are flying out of Cuban ballparks at a récord clip this winter—obviously as much the product of a remarkable new crop of talented sluggers as of any introduction of new resilient graphite composite bats—and the first-half National Series winning streaks of normal also-rans Sancti Spíritus in the west and Guantánamo in the east have stimulated island-wide speculation that for a second straight season a surprise league champion may well be in the offering. Could new milestones perhaps be just around the corner—perhaps a new league individual home run récord for the third season in a row; or a new island career strikeout mark for Pedro Luis Lazo? It already appears that a rebirth of the recently dormant Selective Series “second season” is now well along in the planning stages. And if nothing else, a landmark historic fiftieth edition of the National Series looms less than a dozen months down the road. So let’s take a peak at what this writer believes may most likely await us on the Cuban baseball horizon.

Bjarkman’s Fearless Predictions for the 2010 Calendar Year

If Cuban baseball has a special attraction it has to be the remarkable regenerative abilities of the island sport. Despite the loss of young prospects who elect to flee the island, despite the constant upgrading of international competition, despite the constant (and often dismaying) shuffling and reorganizing of National Series structure and format, and even despite worsening economic conditions on the island, each new season brings thrills and achievements designed to outstrip those that have gone before. So here are some of the remarkable events I foresee for the coming dozen months (reviewed here in no particular order of importance). Some of these prognostications may now seem like no-brainers, with the National Series #49 slate now two-thirds of the way to completion. A new home run récord now seems almost certain (but will it be frontrunner Yulieski Gourriel, pre-season favorite Alfredo Despaigne, or suddenly emerging dark horse José Dariel Abreu who reaches the wire first?). A new league champion also seems highly likely, given the year-long struggles for Lombillo’s forces in Habana Province (but can either the SSP Gallos or GTM Indians hold on, or will the experience of post-season regulars Santiago or Villa Clara hold sway in the heat of the post-season fray?). Here are my own takes on these and other intriguing questions at the heart of the current and upcoming league seasons.

#1—Alexei Bell Wins NS#49 Batting Crown in Biggest Comeback of the Year

Bell’s dramatic return—sparked by a remarkable opening day slugging performance—has to be this year’s lead story when it comes to the island’s national pastime. Bell’s two grand slams in his first two at-bats (in the very first inning of the season) equaled a feat accomplished but once in the known world of professional baseball. And that feat took on an added element of drama against the backdrop of the slugger’s Opening Day eye injury of a mere ago—a setback which ruined his 2008-2009 season and also robbed him of WBC and World Cup national team roster spots. But Bell’s current comeback season has now also taken on far grander proportions given that he as maintained a slot at or near the top of the league’s individual batting race for the entire first two-thirds of the National Series campaign. Bell has dipped below the coveted .400 mark in recent weeks and now trails red-hot Henry Urrutia (Las Tunas) by more than 20 percentage points. And yet the more experienced Bell (with his team in the thick of the pennant race and a trio of potential sluggers on either side of him in the batting order) does still seem a somewhat better bet than the previously unheralded Urrutia to make the strongest run to the wire. I am going out on a limb here and claiming that the 2008 league home run récord setter and RBI champion will now add some further laurels with a 2010 National Series batting crown. Bell’s final mark should land somewhere between .392 and .396, a mere stone’s throw short of the milestone .400 plateau.

Bjarkman sees Alexei Bell as Cuba’s comeback story of 2010.

#2—New Cuban Baseball Commissioner Named for National Series #50

Higinio Vélez has never been a very popular figure in Cuban baseball. Few cheered his original selection as League commissioner a couple of years back. Owning one of the most successful tenures as a field manager in Santiago, where he directed four National Series champions, Vélez belongs to a very select club of former managers (alongside Ramon Carneado and Pedro Jova) who have strung together three consecutive league titles. But these have not been easy times in Cuban baseball, with an increasing stream of young talent abandoning the island, with a sagging economy and the damages inflicted by several recent hurricanes sapping league physical resources, and with a trio of recent World Cup and Olympic silver medal finishes somewhat tarnishing (especially at home) the national team image of invincibility. Vélez was a brilliant spokesman for the island team at the first World Baseball Classic and most of the recent “minor crises” facing the island’s national pastime can hardly be laid solely at his doorstep. But there have lately been numerous reports of tensions in the national team clubhouse, and when Cuban fans were surveyed by Havana’s Radio COCO last March (2009) about a potential manager for the upcoming second WBC edition, both former Pinar skipper Jorge Fuentes and current Villa Clara bench boss Eduardo Martin outpolled Vélez as popular choices. Cuban baseball commissioners—like national teams managers—sit on a constant hot seat and operate with a very short leash. It is likely only a matter of time until still another change is made at the top, and I expect it will come sooner (perhaps even at the close of National Series #49) rather than later.

#3—Entire National Series #49 Passes Without a Single No-Hit and No-Run Game

There are many decent pitchers and even some exceptional pitchers in Cuba. Yet it is difficult to argue that the hitters on the island have not been a good deal ahead of the hurlers during recent campaigns. The reasons for this are multiple and probably have to be explained by some combination of all the following factors: the influx of graphite bats since NS#46, the absence of top-flight coaching for the island’s young pitching prospects (with so many Cuban coaches now serving abroad on loan to other federations in Nicaragua, Guatemala, Italy and elsewhere), and even the impact of numerous young hurlers leaving the island. But no-hit, no-run gems are also true aberrations, and of the 50 such games in Cuban League history (since 1962) only 42 have transpired in National Series contests (7 occurring in Selective Series games and one tossed in the short-lived summertime Super League). The 42 National Series masterpieces have been spread over only 27 seasons, which means 21 seasons have transpired without witnessing a single such rare event. There has only ever been one “perfect game”—without a single base runner allowed—the one tossed by Maels Rodríguez in December 1999; and twice (both 1962-1965 and 1994-1997) there have been arid four-year stretches failing to produce a single no-hit extravaganza. But whatever the odds, the upswing in rampant slugging seems now to decrease them even further. My guess is that this will be the first full season since NS#46 that will pass us by without the thrill of seeing baseball’s most supreme exhibition of single-day pitching mastery.

#4—New Home Run Champion and New Home Run Record During National Series #49

The National Series individual home run championship is truly one of Cuban baseball’s greatest revolving doors. There has not been a back-to-back long ball champion on the island in more than fifteen seasons, the last such repeat occurring when Lázaro Junco topped the long-ball field in both 1993 (NS#32) and 1994 (NS#33). There have only been three sluggers in National Series history who have been able to string together consecutive titles: Rolando Valdés in the first two NS seasons, but with only 3 round trippers each year in an era unfriendly to slugging; Pedro José Rodríguez four years running in the late 1970s; and Junco twice (the Matanzas belter enjoyed a four-year run of his own in the early 80s before authoring his pair of early-90s crowns). The most recent two seasons have witnessed consecutive récord-breaking performances, but by different individuals. My call here is a third straight récord, but this time around with Yulieski Gourriel returning to the spotlight by reclaiming the title he earned back in 2006 (27 dingers). Yulieski is locked in a tight race with defending champion Despaigne and surprise challenger José Dariel Abreu. My crystal ball tells me this time Yulie will finish strong and thus wash away the personal disappointment of last season’s loss of a batting crown on the season’s final day.

#5—Sancti Spíritus Reigns as Champion of National Series #49

This already appears to be the long-awaited “Year of the Gallo” in Cuban baseball. The Sancti Spíritus ball club has long owned some of the island’s top offensive talents; it is pitching that has proven a true Achilles Heel ever since the unexpected loss of Maels Rodríguez earlier in the decade. In his first tenure Lourdes Gourriel several times led his heavy-hitting forces into the Promise Land of post-season play, registering a near miss back in 2002 with a seven-game championship-series loss to upstart Holguín. Two years back interim skipper Juan Castro steered his charges to the seventh game of a hard-fought semifinal showdown with Pinar del Río. Across recent campaigns few teams have been able to muster better artillery than the lineup featuring national team stars Gourriel, Cepeda and Eriel Sánchez, plus added stalwarts Liván Monteagudo, Yunier Mendoza and Yenier Bello. Sancti Spíritus has also owned some impressive arms over the years in the likes of now-retired Yovani Aragón, once-promising Ifreidi Coss, and national team contributor Ismel Jiménez. In the heat of the playoffs, however, it has always been the pitching (especially the depth of pitching) that has failed the Roosters. This season, with the senior Gourriel back at the helm, the slugging has been more impressive than ever, Angel Peña has now provided a surprise lift as the current league ERA pacesetter, and at the two-thirds post the proud Gallos own a huge Occidental League first-place lead as well as the circuit’s best overall récord. Only a slowly improving Villa Clara club (last-year’s sub-champion) seems to pose any serious obstacle to a first Sancti Spíritus league title in more than three decades and only the second trophy in ball club history.

Bjarkman predicts a new strikeout récord for ageless Pedro Lazo.

#6—Pedro Lazo Breaks Rogelio Garcia’s Career Strikeout Mark

About the only barrier here is Pedro Lazo’s own continued motivation—and perhaps, of course, also the ever-present specter of debilitating injury that always haunts any athlete. The career victory milepost is already safely in Lazo’s back pocket and that other prized pitching trophy—the career strikeout mark—now looms on the horizon. Earlier in the current campaign Lazo shot from third to second slot on the all-time Ks list by overhauling former teammate Faustino Corrales. With 72 Ks at the two-thirds point of the current season, the ageless Pinar ace has already exceeded his 2009 National Series total. Lazo is now a mere 80 short of overtaking récord owner Rogelio García, yet a third mound legend who also labored for Pinar del Río. The margin of difference is likely to be less than 50 by the time the current NS schedule and post-season calendar winds down, and one more season on the hill (it would be his 21st) would put the title squarely in Lazo’s possession. García hurled for 16 seasons and 2609 innings to establish his own long-standing spot in the récord books. Faustino worked a much longer 23 campaigns but a lesser inning total (2544.1) to ring up his own total. Lazo falls in the middle in NS seasons (20) but has logged a much larger innings count (currently 3247.1) than either of his historical rivals. But all the comparative numbers aside, before the mid-point of NS#50 (in late 2010) we should be celebrating a new all-time Cuban League strikeout king named Pedro Luis Lazo.

#7—Germán Mesa Replaced as Industriales Manager After Only Two Seasons

Things have not gone well of late for the island’s most popular ballclub, and it is the oldest of baseball axioms that when a team slumps (especially when expectations are sky high, as they always are in Havana) the popular solution is almost always to fire the manager. I loved Germán Mesa as a player (yes, he was better than Ozzie Smith with the glove!) and I love him as well as a discipline-demanding manager. But the normally potent Industriales Lions (Cuba’s version of the dynasty big-league New York Yankees) now stand on the verge of missing post-season play for a second consecutive National Series season, something that has never yet transpired since the inauguration of the current play-off system a quarter-century ago in 1985-1986 (NS#25). Over the recent 25-year span the Blue Lions have only stayed at home for the post-season on four occasions (1988, 1991, 1995, 2009). We only have to remember here how quickly fans and local INDER officials recently turned sour in Sancti Spíritus when Juan Castro failed to produce an immediate boost to playoff fortunes for the underachieving Gallos. Castro was dismissed after only two seasons at the helm and Lourdes Gourriel was reinstalled in his old post. Last season Mesa’s Industriales club was crippled by the unexpected early-season departures of Yasser Gómez, Yadel Martí and Denis Súarez; this winter the late-season playoff run has already suffered a similar setback with an injury to veteran team leader Carlos Tabares. Mesa was responsible for none of those pitfalls, but in baseball it is always the manager who is the easy scapegoat. Look for perhaps Javier Méndez to be calling the shots at the end of the bench when National Series #50 rolls around next November (or perhaps even as early as a promised Selective Series renewal this coming summer).

The author with Germán Mesa, on the eve of what may be the legend’s last season managing for Industriales.

#8—Norge Vera Successfully Returns for Second Half of National Series #49

The month-long delay in getting these predictions on line has already proven me wrong in at least one detail about Aroldis Chapman (Cincinnati was not the team I thought he would sign with), and in turn it has already proven me at least partially correct in my optimistic projections about Norge Vera. Norge Luis Vera is arguably the best Cuban hurler of the last decade and also by far the most resilient. Vera has already come back from more than one on-field injury in superb style to maintain his steady level of performance. It is not at all surprising, therefore, that the veteran Santiago ace has bounced back from a disastrous (and possibly career-threatening) November injury in such spectacular fashion. Less than a month into the new calendar year the lanky right-hander has been nothing short of sensational. After a one-inning test on January 12 in Pinar (one hit and one K), Vera quickly proved his complete recovery with a masterful 7-plus inning one-hitter against defending champion Habana Province in San José (January 16). In a second start one week later Norge was touch for ten hits over eight frames but walked none (3 Ks) and yielded only two tallies in a no-decision 3-2 Santiago loss to Ciego de Avila. I sense this is only the beginning and that by the time league playoffs roll around the 6-3 rubber-armed veteran will again prove on of the major factors in a deep Santiago post-season run. If it weren’t for the miraculous season-long turnaround by Wasps teammate Alexei Bell, Norge Vera would likely have been the biggest “comeback” story of National Series #49.

#9—Havana Metropolitanos Again Posts Worst Record of National Series #49

This particular gaze into the immediate future is obviously almost too easy; I shouldn’t boast very loudly when I am right about this one, because it is a call that even the most casual followers of island baseball could likely have made. Despite near-récord-level inept early-season play by both understaffed Camagüey and injury-riddled Isla de la Juventud, it was only a matter of time until Metros managed once again to play themselves straight to the bottom of the barrel. It is an all-too-familiar story and history is on our side here; if the Metros club always receives the short end of the deal when it comes to player assignments in the capital city, the lopsided margin between the Warriors and the hometown favored Blue Lions is always further enlarged by the continued practice of moving promising youngsters off the roster of the Metropolitanos and into the camp of powerhouse Industriales (the latest example being last season’s promising slugger Irait Chirino). Last winter the inept charges of Jorge Millán trailed the pack in the Occidental League and posted a league-worst 57 losses; a year earlier the same club managed to edge ahead of inept Matanzas yet still managed to drop 61 contests, the same number squandered a year earlier. A low point was reached in 2006 with 69 defeats (only Pinar with 85 in 1968 and Camagüey with 73 in 1969 have suffered more embarrassing totals), and Metros hasn’t enjoyed a winning campaign for a full decade. The club has already lost 51 contests at the two-thirds point of the season and is currently on a pace to drop a team-récord 71 games, an all-time récord for any 90-game National Series. The 85 and 73 totals posted by Pinar and Camagüey both came in campaigns that were 99 games in length.

#10—Esteban Lombillo Replaced as National Team Manager

Managing the national baseball team is arguably the toughest job on the island of Cuba and national team managers sit atop an even higher wattage “hot seat” than the one occupied by front office League commissioners. For all the associated prestige, it is most certainly not an occupation that promises much long-term security. The biggest problem of course is the fact that the island boasts about 11 million self-appointed “managers” (the bulk of the island’s population of unsurpassed fanatics) when it comes to following national team fortunes, and every man, women or child in the streets seems to believe they know how to guide the country’s ball club in international contributions. The result is that no loss is acceptable and every bench decision is open to endless public debate and criticism. The recent history of national team bosses speaks for itself; since the first WBC event back in March 2006—little more than three years past—five skippers have briefly taken the helm in rapid succession (Vélez, Anglada, Pacheco, Vélez again, and finally Lombillo). This is a bigger turn-over rate than that experienced by the New York Yankees during the tyrannical reign of infamously impatient owner George Steinbrenner. September’s World Cup matches in Europe featured the toughest international field ever assembled and the Cuban forces pulled off a rather miraculous feat by coming home no worse than second for the 22nd straight time since 1952. But two consecutive silver medals behind the Americans in the top IBAF event (the first under Anglada and the second under Lombillo) means that the popular Habana Province leader (and last season’s most successful National Series skipper) most likely won’t get his shot at a second chance.

#11—Aroldis Chapman Eventually Signs with the Toronto Blue Jays (or Somebody)

Of course, timing is absolutely everything. I decided on these predictions back in the final weeks of December and now pay the price for not bringing them to life on-line until nearly a full month later. Well I guess eleven out of twelve might not be bad. So I admit I am already wrong on this one, since it was surprisingly the Cincinnati Reds and not the Blues Jays, Bosox, Braves or any of the other reputed suitors who took the actual plunge by tossing more than $30 million in cash at a raw and unproven prospect who boasts a remarkably live left arm but has never yet thrown even a single professional inning, or for that matter demonstrated his skills very successfully in top-level international tournament play. I have expended considerable “ink” on discussing both Chapman’s raw potential and considerable drawbacks in other on-line forums, and some of my commentary has been greeted with a good deal of skepticism by numerous stateside readers (usually by those who have read the press clippings about the 100-plus fastball but haven’t actually seen him pitch). Obviously anyone that young and with that kind of arm is worth some risky investments. But we all know that a consistent high-90s and occasional 100-plus mph “heater” does not itself ever make a successful big league hurler. So let me take the liberty of changing this prediction ever-so slightly: don’t expect an overnight $30-million payoff or franchise-saving impact from Aroldis Chapman during the next dozen months. The kid still has too much to learn about pitching before he can hope to deliver any true signs of such widely expected big-league stardom.

#12—Noel Argüelles Proves Biggest “Bust” Among Recent “Defectors” to MLB

I am always open to rude surprises and my crystal ball has not always been very reliable, let alone foolproof, but if I was going the bet my entire collection of Omar Linares bobble head dolls on any of these wild predictions, then it would certainly be this last one. That is to say, if Aroldis Chapman is something of a gamble, then Noel Arguelles is easily the year’s biggest “shot in the dark.” Chapman seems to lack savvy and discipline more than anything else, but with Arguelles there are actual and substantial questions about that more easily measured factor of raw native talent itself. While the Reds may have jeopardized $30 million that could have been better invested in proven free-agent talent, the Kansas City Royals have likely flushed $7 million (plus another $2 million in incentives) down the drain in signing the 20-year-old 6-4 former Habana Province righty. Yes, Arguelles throws a 94-mph heater, but in Cuba he never demonstrated much of any ability to throw his fastball anywhere close to home plate. Yes, he had some brief successes with the junior national team, but in his couple of trials in the National Series he got little opportunity to succeed while buried deep in the bullpen of the league’s best pitching rotation. Lost in the shadows of the likes of Jonder Martínez, Yulieski González, Yadier Pedroso, Miguel Lahera, Angel Garcia, and last year’s standout Miguel Alfredo González, Arguelles posted a less-than-lackluster rookie stat line of 0-5, with an exploding 7.23 ERA, and a most unimpressive ratio of 26 walks to only 16 strikeouts. If Arguelles has some of the raw tools that big league scouts have claimed, then he may indeed hold some future promise. But actual performance doesn’t lie either, and if Arguelles is worth nearly $10 million, than what in the world is the dollar amount that should be attached to Jonder, or Yuilieksi González, or above all Miguel Alfredo (who recently struck out a near-récord 11 straight in a World Cup match and was also last year’s Cuban League post-season MVP)?

Sadly, that seems to be all my crystal ball tells me about the year to come. And of course these potential outcomes are not necessarily events I welcome (especially replacements of Germán Mesa and Esteban Lombillo, who like managers everywhere are better seen as “scapegoats” than villains when it comes to assessing their teams’ failures to meet perhaps excessive fan or management expectations). Hopes and wishes are a different matter from mere expectations. Since I am an admitted fan of Sancti Spíritus, my predicted SSP league championship may be more wishful dreaming on my part than anything, and I am certainly not rooting for a demise of pitching gems (no-hit games). But for better or worse, this is how I see the headline events of the coming year, and like any good umpire or journalist I try to call them just like I see them. In the third and final installment I will turn to a dozen or so outcomes I would in fact most hardily welcome, not that I am optimistic that most of them will actually transpire anytime in the near future. So in the next installment I will turn to those potential events on the Cuban baseball scene that I am actually enthusiastically rooting for and not merely (sometimes reluctantly) predicting.

Peter C. Bjarkman is author of A History of Cuban Baseball, 1864-2006 (McFarland, 2007) and widely considered a leading authority on Cuban baseball, both past and present. He reports regularly on Cuban League action and on the Cuban national team for www.baseballdecuba.com and also writes a regular weekly Cuban League report for www.ibaf.com. He is currently completing a book on the history of the post-revolution Cuban national team.